Outcomes are seldom random. Teams win and lose games, especially close ones, for specific reasons. Some are controllable, others not. Decision-making and execution define success and failure. We underestimate unwitnessed player development and overcount in-game coaching.
Talent disparities. My high school coach told me that a former NBA player offered to steer players his way, however many he wanted. He declined, electing to keep player development in the community. AAU players sometimes create 'superteams' mimicking what they see at higher levels. More of the same is likely.
Poor skill development. If achievement is performance multiplied by time, then poor performance and little time invested equals low achievement. Basketball is a harsh mistress demanding high levels of time and attention. Other activities and other sports compete for attention, time, and dollars. Volleyball, soccer, and lacrosse gain at basketball's expense.
Defensive mistakes and errors. "More and better" shots than our opponents includes not allowing easy baskets. Those baskets arise in live ball turnovers, bad transition defense, poor ball containment, lack of help (and recovery), bad pick-and-roll defense, and undisciplined fouling. Bad teams give games away.
Poor shot quality or shooting. Everyone should know what good shots are for them and each of their teammates. Specific shooting statistics arise from shot charts which have been around for over half a century (we used them in high school). Far more sophisticated ones are widely circulated.
Bad transition defense. Transition hoops can change momentum, inspire the fans, and demoralize defenders. They figuratively suck the oxygen out of the room for the victim. Define roles (two or three to the glass?) and set expectations (e.g. no more than three transition hoops per game).
Turnovers. Turnovers kill dreams...and coaches. Study and correct the origins, either decision-making or execution. When we've tracked type and number, we've reduced them about twenty percent.
Ball containment. If layups and free throws win games, then inability to stay in front of the ball is a springboard for both. Coaches decide whether to force weak hand and how much help to give (e.g. via packline style defense).
Toughness. Toughness IS a skill. Soft teams don't get their share of loose balls, rebounds, don't set or fight through hard screens, don't take charges, don't communicate, lose leads, and seldom come back. They don't beat good teams and underachieve on the road.
"Iron sharpens iron." Cupcake schedules might get you to the playoffs but don't forge deep runs.
Bad coaching. Define bad coaching. "You know it when you see it."
Where's the lower-hanging fruit? Winning has value exactly because it's hard. There's no shortcut.
- Individual skill development (three level scoring)
- Strength and conditioning (ball containment demands it)
- 1 on 1, 2 on 2 (especially pick-and-roll)
- Small-sided games
- Situational basketball practice (script close and late)
- O-D-O (offense-defense-offense special situations practice)
- Pressure-pressure-pressure (good teams apply and handle it...advantage-disadvantage practice with constraints such as limiting dribbles matters)
Lagniappe. Sometimes "fresh" is old. Huh? Who preached the pound dribble into shot elevation? Jerry West.
