Ed Smith's "Making Decisions" challenges us to think and do better as decision makers. Here are takeaways that do not afford the first chapter justice.
To understand decision-making, work to understand previous history. What made a special or specious team work or fail?
If past performance is poor or unacceptable, do not feel obligated to repeat the methods and decisions that delivered those results. Einstein reminds us, "insanity is repeating the same thing over and over and expecting different results."
If performance is poor, is it related to lack of talent, lack of diversity (too many similar players), too much caution, or a lack of players capable of "unlocking" quality in others?
For example, in baseball, if our rotation is exclusively right-handed breaking ball pitchers, opponents will adjust and we are unlikely to have enough superior hurlers to win over the long pull.
Realize that facts and interpretation are not the same. Without superior analysis, we may not generate useful information. Our goal should be "understanding what's going on."
Smith refers to an article by Michael Oakeshott subtitled, "How to Pick the Derby Winner." He advises us to study the decision process. Here's a summary from Artificial Intelligence.
