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Friday, February 28, 2025

Basketball - Human Misjudgment Exposes Us All

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Legendary investor and Warren Buffett partner Charlie Munger enumerated 24 causes of human misjudgment in his 1995 Commencement address at Harvard. They help us do better. 

Munger outlined 24 causes of human misjudgment in his famous 1995 speech at Harvard. Here they are (via ChatGPT). I added annotations as examples of where they could apply for basketball. I've highlighted a few that resonated for me. 

Of course, they apply in practically any field. If I asked, "are you better off if your doctor orders more tests or fewer because they are compensated differently? You don't want to have problems missed but you may not want to go through uncomfortable or expensive procedures if they are not necessary. You have to trust someone as your advocate. 

  1. Reward and Punishment Superresponse Tendency – Incentives drive behavior, often irrationally. There's a true story about a coach being told they were playing "brown kids" too much. The message was that if you want to keep your job, change your substitutions. "User fees" sometimes get viewed as "pay for minutes" not as "participation fees." 
  2. Liking/Loving Tendency – We distort reality in favor of things or people we admire. The philosopher Bertrand Russell said, "if 50 million people say a stupid thing, it is still a stupid thing." Some will say that coach "X" walks on water when he may be walking on the bodies he left behind. I read an obituary of a famous surgeon. It read as though he were nominated for sainthood. "Wasn't that the guy universally viewed as an Ahole?" "You're not wrong." 
  3. Disliking/Hating Tendency – We irrationally distort reality against things or people we dislike. If standing in judgment of someone we have strong negative opinions about, an option is to recuse ourself instead of casting a negative vote. Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds may have both used performance-enhancing drugs. My speculation is that PEDs work better in star players than Mendoza Line guys. Does anybody rationally think LeBron James hasn't been a great player? Yet, he gets castigated as LeBum by some. 
  4. Doubt-Avoidance Tendency – The brain tries to resolve uncertainty quickly, often prematurely. Rather than have a nuanced view of an issue, it's easier to dismiss. There is no "on the other hand," as a one-armed economist. You hate three-point shots? "They ruined the game." There are multiple ways to win...and lose. 
  5. Inconsistency-Avoidance Tendency – We resist change and stick to old beliefs and habits. When we have made public commitments about players, coaches, or teams, we are usually reluctant to change. "Not always right but never in doubt." We prefer to stick to our public opinion than to change because the situation changed. That's the equivalent of missing our exit on the highway and driving forever. It's an effect of polarizing players like James Harden. 
  6. Curiosity Tendency – Humans have an innate drive to learn and explore. Munger believed that curiosity was highly positive as he sought knowledge through reading and experience. Knowledge enforces humility as it reminds us what we don't know. ChatGPT informed me, "As a coach, doctor, and investor, your curiosity likely drives you to seek better training methods, medical treatments, and investment strategies." Curiosity is almost always positive, although mentor Dr. Tom Walsh cautioned, "don't be curious in following a lit fuse." 
  7. Kantian Fairness Tendency – We want fairness, even if it comes at a personal cost. Is less money better for me, if it helps someone else (e.g. teammates) achieve collective success? That applies to usage, minutes, and shots. Of course, some people only function in a transactional way. I heard of a doctor who wanted two referrals (consultations) for each one he gave. 
  8. Envy/Jealousy Tendency – Comparison drives behavior, sometimes destructively. Buffett told Munger that it wasn't greed that made the world go around, but envy. When applied to the Unholy Triad (minute, role, recognition), envy exists for players, friends, and families. 
  9. Reciprocation Tendency – We feel compelled to return favors, even if they are unwise. Network and develop relationships. Even when returning a favor seems hard, say "yes."
  10. Influence-from-Mere-Association Tendency – We make connections between things that aren’t logically linked. Graduation from a certain college or program sometimes implies a certain level of expertise or competence. Similarly, people make judgments about "coaching trees." The apple may not fall as close to the tree as desired. For example, the Belichick coaching tree produced a lot of duds. 
  11. Simple, Pain-Avoiding Psychological Denial – We ignore uncomfortable truths. When evaluating ourselves and others, it's hard to see strengths and weaknesses accurately. Bill Parcells said it simply, "You are what your record says you are." 
  12. Excessive Self-Regard Tendency – People overestimate their abilities and importance. A doctor retraining in primary care in the military instructed subordinates to call them "Commander." The 'outranking' officer literally pulled rank with everyone despite a lack of competence and experience. I've seen coaches put on the same act. 
  13. Overoptimism Tendency – Optimism can lead to poor risk assessment. For much of Olympic history, American basketball was unbeatable. With time, better coaching and players, the world caught up. Gold medals still come but they're not assured. 
  14. Deprival-Superreaction Tendency – Loss aversion makes people act irrationally. Experimentally, losing makes people feel twice as bad as winning makes them feel good. Who hasn't dwelled on bad losses versus great wins? Success demands that teams and players play to win instead of not to lose. As Jon Bon Jovi sings in "Just Older," "you can't win until you're not afraid to lose."
  15. Social-Proof Tendency – We follow the crowd, even when it’s wrong. Book sales and podcasts can depend on the reviews of others. Similarly, fans can read the 'takes' of reviewers and have unrealistic expectations of excellence. Popularity and value aren't the same. 
  16. Contrast-Misreaction Tendency – We misjudge changes in intensity, value, or significance. There's an experiment with three buckets of water - iced, hot, and room temperature. After a subject has one hand each in the iced and hot water and places both in the room temperature, she feels the "normal" temperature as hot or cold. A player who does well at one level may not perform well at another. They get labeled as "busts." 
  17. Stress-Influence Tendency – Stress distorts perception and decision-making. There's the "hot hand" belief that if someone has made their last few shots, that is likely to continue. The "hot hand" is a fallacy for some and a reality for other players. 
  18. Availability-Misweighing Tendency – We overvalue easily recalled information. Sometimes what everyone knows is wrong or what we think we know is obsolete. Applying statistics from one area (e.g. NBA three-point percentage) has no guaranteed application to lower levels. 
  19. Use-It-or-Lose-It Tendency – Skills and knowledge degrade if not used. Most athletic skills are perishable. Without regular practice, performance degrades. 
  20. Drug-Misinfluence Tendency – Substance use impairs judgment. People underestimate the tendency for performance to drop when on medication or alcohol. Mickey Mantle homered despite a bad hangover. When he reached the dugout he told teammates that fans had no idea how difficult that was. 
  21. Senescence-Misinfluence Tendency – Aging affects cognition and decision-making. It's not easy to know when our time has passed. That could apply for coaches, players and unrelated domains. Do we know as physicians when we're past our prime? 
  22. Authority-Misinfluence Tendency – We defer to authority, sometimes blindly. In the airline industry, copilots are taught not to defer to pilots, regardless of seniority. In some cultures with strong hierarchies that resulted in fatal crashes. People need to know their role and their limitations.
  23. Twaddle Tendency – People waste time on nonsense and irrelevant details. In some communities, debates rage over the team nickname which is unimportant in the big picture. 
  24. Reason-Respecting Tendency – People like explanations, even weak or false ones. If we promote a player to another coach, providing a 'comp' to another successful player may get a more favorable view. That won't be easy for someone pushed as the next Wembanyama or Jokic. 

Munger emphasized that these tendencies often work in combination, compounding human misjudgment. 

Lagniappe. Teach players that if they want to be viewed as elite, they need to make others better and impact winning. 

Lagniappe 2. "High-low" action can create mismatches and favorable angles to attack the basket.  

Lagniappe 3. JVG on the role of the point guard in the pick-and-roll.  

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