Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. - Toby Harrah
Box scores can lie but they usually don't. They don't show "hustle plays" like 50-50 balls won, great blockouts, deflections, charges taken, and so on. Last night the Celtics defeated the Nuggets. Does the box score reveal why?
Shooting percentage differential. Denver shot 43% and the Celtics the same, but the Celtics took twelve more shots. Within those totals, Denver was 7-21 on threes and Boston 9-28. So among those twelve extra shots, Boston had seven more attempts from deep and converted two more (six points). The Celtics are fourth in the NBA in opponents' effective Field Goal Percentage.
Rebounding differential. Denver outrebounded the Celtics 53-48 and both teams had fourteen offensive rebounds. Rebounding doesn't explain the score as it gives Denver a marginal edge.
Turnovers. The Celtics are among the league leaders in steals and are third in the NBA in forcing opponent turnovers per 100 possessions. They rely on "defense into offense". The Celtics had only 11 turnovers and Denver 20, with the Celtics winning the steal battle 15 to 4. "Better ingredients, better pizza" meant more shots and better shots (in transition). This translated into 24 versus 14 points in transition.
Free throw differential. Denver shot eight more free throws and converted four more. This wasn't enough to overcome their shot differential and turnovers.
Assists. The Celtics had six more assists (29-23) and we know that players shoot a higher percentage off passes than off individual efforts. The Celtics are 7th in the NBA in assist ratio...not surprisingly Golden State and San Antonio lead the league. Part of that relates to the Celtics mediocre three point shooting (not racking up assists on missed shots).
0:45 Marcus Smart's steal turns into a transtion 3.
It's worthwhile to remember the line from The Big Short. "Truth is like poetry, and most people #$%@ing hate poetry."
