Warren Buffett's lesser known partner is Charlie Munger, Harvard trained lawyer, Renaissance man, scholar, master of thinking and applying mental models. According to Buffett, Munger can detect what can go wrong with an idea in a minute.
Occasionally, the investing Universe brings together magical, cosmic synergy to create what Munger called the "Lollapalooza Effect," force multiplication (in either direction) amidst biases that divines special risk or opportunity. Munger values preparation, patience, discipline, and objectivity in cobbling his analysis.
Can we identify a similar analogy in player evaluation and development?
Obvious dimensions include elite size and athleticism. Assessments of skill in youth suffer as snapshots and project uncertain trajectory. That demands a philosophical leap of faith, judging motivation and discipline, and intangibles like basketball 'instinct.' The Samuelson highlight video above shows the integrated excellence, skill, cutting, passing, and savoir faire of the elite player. Know how vanquishes know that.
Munger asks first what the rational observer sees and would do, and second what subconscious (emotional) biases interfere with arriving at conclusions. Paraphrasing Richard Pryor, I ask, "do you believe your beloved judgment or your lying eyes?"
Buffett and Munger also adhere to their 'circle of competence' with conviction of YES, NO, or TOO TOUGH TO UNDERSTAND. Fortunately, the too tough to understand seldom applies to the fundamental basketball excellence, just the characters involved.
With a more advanced young player, it's tempting to abbreviate baby steps of judging footwork, balance, pivoting, protecting the ball. But thorough and thoughtful preparation, Popovichian "pounding the rock" is precisely what produces lollapalooza.
Wedding skill, knowledge, and experience shapes the finished product. Cultivate and seek LOLLAPALOOZA.
Lagniappe: Xavier suggested "Partner Workout" 2006
Double bonus:
