"It's not good enough to be right, you also have to be effective." - Neil DeGrasse Tyson's father
Dissect and simplify. What two concepts are essential?
- Quality shot(s) every possession (implies no turnovers)
- "One bad shot" (at most) for opponents every possession
To get sustainable competitive advantage, measure those essentials. But what?
Dean Smith explored points per possession in his book, Basketball: Multiple Offense and Defense. Carolina sometimes scrimmaged with shot quality-based scoring. An uncontested layup was the highest ranked. He thought that helped North Carolina have the highest shooting percentage in the Atlantic Coast Conference. 
Data miners study factors contribute to winning. In the early 2000's, Dean Oliver published Basketball on Paper, seminal research about the four factors:
Other authors extended and idealized the concept. They rebranded the Four Factors as:
- Score every possession
- Protect the basketball
- Grab all the rebounds
- Get to the Foul Line
Effective field goal percentage (EFG %), while not the Holy Grail, becomes the primary target.
They adjust for the impact of the data on winning using complex statistical methods that give any of us an ice cream headache.
In other words, shooting and turnovers account for over eighty percent of the outcome variation...not exactly low hanging fruit.
NBA Team Opponent Floor percentage reveals a lot. The correlation with team records is striking.
Data may not decide an individual game, but define large samples. Reinforce to players the importance of quality shots, disallowing easy shots, and avoiding turnovers. Give and get feedback through the season. As they embrace better process, better results follow.
Lagniappe: Brian Adams – “An area I really want to up this year is help defense – the ability to shrink and pack the paint . . The top eight defensive teams were all top eight in least amount of points allowed in the paint.”
2019 statistics:
New York is limiting points in the paint...but allows the second most points per game on three-pointers (41)...Philadelphia is best at 28.9...the Knicks are also 24th in allowing highest percent of points on free throws and 25th in field goal percentage allowed. Overemphasis on one data point can mislead us.
