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Sunday, May 10, 2020

Basketball: Aggregating Marginal Gains, Never Enough, and Specifics



Never enough. 

Coach Lane always said, "I'm pleased but I'm not satisfied." Eventually, he got the State Title, spearheaded by Mark Plansky, who later earned another title as Villanova upset Georgetown in the NCAA Championship.  

Amazing things happen with "marginal gains." British cycling hired Dave Brailsford in 2003. Brailsford instituted a program of relentless change, changing equipment and human factors. Riders wore more aerodynamic suits, bike tires got lighter, training methods changed. The program experimented with different massage gels for legs, brought better pillows on the road, and riders even learned how to wash their hands better to reduce infections. The results stunned the world.
From BBC.com

Wooden's truth remains that "little things make big things happen." 

What details can we improve in our process to get better results? We might start with Dean Oliver's Four Factors - Score, Protect, Crash, Attack. Basketball symmetry makes it eight factors. The link is worth it. 

Improve EFG%  
- Shoot better 
- Take better shots 
- Pass for higher quality shots 
- Snipers get more 
- Off the catch shots outperform off the dribble shots (6 percent) 
- No forced shots.  

Reduce Turnovers - It has to be a mindset. In youth play, we have too much, "it's okay" as players support one another. "It's not okay" to travel and throw the ball away, especially against pressure. Turnovers turn into layups. Five against seven "advantage-disadvantage" no dribbling was the cure going back almost fifty years. 

Clean the glass. Defensive rebounding emphasizes POSITION and TOUGHNESS. Offensive rebounding stresses ANTICIPATION and AGGRESSIVENESS. In War on the Boards, Coach Raveling writes, "Our research reveals that most offensive tip-ins are scored by the weak side offensive rebounder...the defensive rebounder relaxes his concentration on his opponent because he appears to be in a harmless position. A reverse pivot will normally counteract an offensive man's movement toward the missed shot."

Key message - learn to block out with both front and reverse pivots.

Get to the line. The "high EFG actions" are scoring at the rim, open corner 3's, and free throws. The highest of all points per possession come off free throws, with even seventy percent (of two shots) equaling 1.4 points/possession. You have to shoot almost fifty percent on threes to get there, and the "contestedness" factor of shots at the rim reduces percentage for many players. It meshes with the Point Guard College advice to "Get 7's" the higher quality shots. 

All of this links back to "Never Enough," the brilliant song (top) from The Greatest Showman. 

Lagniappe: Preview of an article from the great Don Kelbick -

"As a young coach I had the privilege to have a relationship with the late, great Jim
Valvano. Jim was all about making the game fun. His players always played hard, played
well and were very loyal. He would tell me things that I didn’t agree with, but always
remembered. 

I was shocked when he told me that, in February, his practice schedule looked like this:

Fouls Shots
Scouting Report

Go Home

No offensive repetitions? “If they don’t know what we are doing by now, another day
isn’t going to help?”

No running or conditioning? “There comes a time in your season when rest is more
important than work.”"

I'll always remember what Brad Stevens asked, "what does my team need now?"