"Conventional thinking yields conventional results."
The US has a fentanyl problem. The useful 'conventional' approach is drug interdiction. Stop the supply of dangerous drugs. Have you heard the "chocolate chip cookie theory" of drug abuse? Why do people bake chocolate chip cookies? People want them. Can we reduce the demand for drugs?
Watching basketball, we "see" what we look for. Here's a brief digression from Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes by Maria Konnikova.
1. Differentiate "observing" from "seeing." Pay attention to the details, not just the actions.
2. Deduce what is happening. "It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data." Measure what impacts games.
3. Maintain emotional detachment. "Emotions obscure judgement." Anger is not a solution.
4. Be a continuous and lifelong learner. Learning is a habit.
How can we think differently by seeing differently? To assess a team's effectiveness, examining the scoreboard isn't enough.
Is a team "playing hard?" Review video for 'urgency'.
- Is the team getting beaten in transition? Do they beat opponents to half court, protect the basket, stop the ball?
- Does the offense sprint to screen, set up cuts, cut hard?
- Does the team win more than its share of loose balls?
- Does the defense consistently pressure the ball?
- What's the spacing? "Spacing is offense and offense is spacing." - Chuck Daly
- Study shot charts. What's the quality of the shots? Are the best shooters getting the most shots in their preferred spots?
- Is the team fouling in an undisciplined way?
- Is the team moving without the ball to improve passing?
- Does the defense load to the ball and cover 1.5 (your player and half of another?)
- Are turnovers arising from decisions, execution, or both?
- Does it adjust tempo to game situations (extend or shorten games)?
- Does it use multiple defenses, multiple coverages (e.g. pick-and-roll)?
- How does it score - 3s, layups, free throws, sets, transition?
View on Threads
THIS IS BASKETBALL
— Steve Dagostino (@DagsBasketball) April 17, 2025
Every good offense has great spacing, the ability to create advantages, and then can execute on those advantages. Sometimes it’s hard to explain what this actually means to players.
This video is one of the best I’ve seen that shows great spacing, keeping… pic.twitter.com/BqRrUZy6NY
Lagniappe 3. Think back to playing basketball in high school. As James Naismith said, "Basketball is an easy game to learn and a difficult one to master."
"Most good things, it takes a long time to figure them out." Originals: How Non-Conformists Move the World by Adam Grant, Sheryl Sandberg