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Saturday, April 19, 2025

Basketball - What Is Wrong with this Picture?

Life is partly about creating advantage. Not taking advantage of others. The military times assaults for the opposition to be unprepared. "Every battle is won before it is fought," writes Sun Tzu in The Art of War. Reporters seek edges searching for Bob Woodward's "best available version of the truth." Martha Mitchell shared abandoned papers during the Watergate Scandal. And coaches seek to create advantage. Bill Belichick says, "Utilize strengths. Attack weaknesses," also from The Art of War.

Many decades ago, a patient was referred to hospital with diffuse lung disease of no apparent cause. I asked to interview the patient. "Do you have any pets?" "Yeah, I have some birds." The patient had Bird-Fancier's Disease, an immune response to bird proteins. The history was the edge. 

When we watch basketball games, ask "what is wrong with this picture?" Are there athletic, size, skill, or other mismatches not exploited? Sometimes good explanations exist. Others, not so much. 

I watched a college team that struggled mightily. I said to another fan, "do they ever score in transition?" He answered, "still waiting to see it." Edges. Find easy baskets in transition. 

Coach Dave Smart notes that every good team finds offense in the half-court. Edges come with mismatches, superior execution, and with hard to defend actions. If a team doesn't use ball screens, complex screening, or urgent cutting, they better be great shooters. 

Good teams adjust tempo to shorten the game (play slower) or lengthen it by playing faster to create more possessions. 

Florida used a complex screen (stagger) to open up a pivotal three. 

Teams create advantage defensively with a variety of tactics:

  • Superior on-ball defense
  • Pressure defense 
  • Changing defenses
  • "Junk defenses," such as box-and-1
Strong teams excel at executing the game close and late. Brad Stevens studied over a thousand NBA end-of-game situations to identify edges that could help win close games. Special situations like BOBs, SLOBs, and ATOs are prime examples.

 

Watch teams that struggle and recurrent "missing themes" emerge. 
  • Does the team create and execute advantages?
  • Do they exploit mismatches in speed, size, or skill?
  • Do they get and prevent easy baskets? 
  • Do they execute hard-to-defend actions in the halfcourt?
  • Do they run and defend the pick-and-roll?
  • How do they use tempo? 
  • How do they adjust defenses? 
  • What are their tendencies close and late? 
Yes, talent differentials matter. Self-assessment of "what is wrong with this picture?" can also help teams achieve. 

Lagniappe. Study and improve the quality of passing. 
Lagniappe 2. Superior thinking benefits from superior processes such as mental models. 



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