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Monday, July 14, 2025

Basketball - "Skin in the Game"

"Skin in the Game" implies having "investment at risk," more than a casual investment in the outcome. There's a similar adage, "eating your own cooking."

Nassim Taleb wrote "Skin in the Game" referencing the need for justice, honor, and sacrifice. He emphasized four points early:

1) Assessing information, in his words, a "bull***t detector."

2) Symmetry, examination from both sides 

3) Asymmetrical information (what does one side know the other doesn't?)

4) Rationality 

How can we use this in our basketball universe? 

Information. A quote from Michael Connelly's "Two Kinds of Truth" applies. "He knew there were two kinds of truth in this world. The truth that was the unalterable bedrock of one’s life and mission. And the other, malleable truth of politicians, charlatans, corrupt lawyers, and their clients, bent and molded to serve whatever purpose was at hand."

If a coach or a reporter asks us for information in confidence, commit to the first kind of truth - strengths and limitations of a player without throwing them under the bus. If someone volunteers information, do we have a way or another source to confirm? 

Similarly, honesty includes "I don't know," when that is the truth. 

Symmetry. When discussing a team, player, or area for discussion, what are the alternatives and information available? Understanding symmetry also includes our own cognitive bias and intrinsic bias. For example, during team selection, I have an intrinsic bias for the more athletic player. Yet, I have seen "less athletic" players in terms of speed or quickness with exceptional skill that forged excellence. 

That doesn't mean excluding character issues (if known) or aptitude, such as the ability to learn and execute new information. 

Asymmetrical information. In the stock market, asymmetrical information includes "inside information." In sports, there may be physical or mental health data, or character information that only one side knows. In "Gridiron Genius," Patriots special assistant Mike Lombardi shared that he maintained contact with SEC sororities to access character data on football players from the women. At lower levels, accessing information be impossible. 

Rationality. Taleb writes, “Rationality is not what has internal logic, but what makes you survive.” Others may see our job through a lens of relationships or performance. I heard about an AD (not in our city) who received a parental complaint about a coach's personnel decisions. The AD said, "the team is 21-1, suggesting the coach knows what he is doing." 

Taleb distinguishes 'survival' in the real world from academic judgements. When we have "skin in the game," we are incentivized to make different decisions than if we don't. "Incentive asymmetries—such as when someone enjoys upside but others bear the risk—lead to irrational behavior." 

If a player has an injury, the coach or management may have upside to the player playing, when the player may not. A player may decide to sit out ahead of a pro draft when their school wants them to play. 

"Skin in the game" changes how we view situations. The portfolio manager whose money is invested alongside investors shares benefit and risk. The British monarchy famously put its sons in harm's way during war. Taleb shares, "You can’t be a lord if you aren’t a lord."

Lagniappe. Players are hardware (body) and software (decision-making). In Elon Musk, Isaacson writes, "Most importantly, regarding the car as a piece of software rather than just hardware allowed it to be continuously upgraded. New features could be delivered over the air." As coaches, we should understand the potential distinction. 

Lagniappe 2. Solid action out of horns with zoom. 



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