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Thursday, March 12, 2026

Celtics Basketball - Doing the Math

Keywords: Core basketball, analytics, possessions, possession enders 

"Get more and better possessions than your opponents." - Pete Newell 

The Celtics are in the fringes of the top four teams in the NBA, despite losing Holiday, Porzingis, Horford, and Kornet to free agency, and Jason Tatum injured for 62 games of the season. Boston went 41-21 in his absence. 

How? They master possessions. Figuratively "pound" these truths into the lexicon of our teams. Coach Joe Mazzulla emphasizes "winning the margins." 

As young players, we heard "win this quarter." Win the majority of quarters and you win a lot of games. "Win this possession" is even better. 

"Productive possessions" happen via "possession enders," players who get "scores and stops." "Turnovers kill dreams." Turnovers are "zero percent possessions" and the willingness to accept "airball threes" means accepting Doc Rivers' "shot turnovers." 

Math informs the "three and D" concept of scores and stops.

The Celtics are the "slowest" team in the NBA in pace. Yet, they are among the  league in:

Offensive rating: points per 100 possessions (second)

Turnover percentage: (second)

Net rating: point differential per game (second)

Defensive rating: (fifth)

Offensive rebounding: (fifth)

Under the radar players can add unexpected value (AI metrics)

Rookie-class hustle rankings

In the NBA’s rookie ladder tracking and hustle categories, Hugo González has ranked:

  • 2nd among rookies in loose balls recovered

  • 3rd among rookies in contested shots

  • 4th among rookies in deflections

These are exactly the types of plays the NBA tracks as “hustle stats,” such as deflections, charges drawn, screen assists, and loose-ball recoveries.

Defensive activity metrics

Advanced tracking also highlights how active he is defensively:

  • Deflections: roughly 80th percentile among players

  • Defensive versatility: 98th percentile in positional coverage

  • Defensive impact metrics: around the 88th percentile for defensive plus-minus measures

That aligns with scouting reports that emphasize his motor, second efforts, and ability to guard multiple positions.

How does it apply for our teams? 

Lessons for Our Teams

The implications for younger teams are clear.

1. Track what matters.
We found that shot charts, turnover rates, and rebound percentages shaped behavior.

2. Value the hidden plays.
Deflections, charges, and contested shots rarely appear in box scores but win games.

3. Celebrate possession savers.
Players who protect the ball and pressure opponents are force multipliers.

4. Teach possession discipline.
Turnovers kill dreams. Shot selection matters.

5. Look beyond the box score.
Winning players often reveal themselves in the margins.
 

Look beyond the boxscore to find winning players.

Lagniappe. Slant board exercises have value for ankles and knees.