“Charlie Munger, once said, learn everything you possibly can from your own personal experience, minimizing what you learned vicariously from the good and bad experience of others, living in dead. This prescription is a sure-shot producer of misery and second rate achievement.“ - Rolf Dobelli in The What Not to Do List
Not confining our learning to our own experience might be an offshoot of "Make Friends with the Dead."
We make mistakes. Everyone 'screws up'. Coach Ellis Lane told us again and again, "When I correct someone's mistake, it applies to everyone." That included "$hit $hots" and "$hitbird defense."
What are a few obvious examples?
Sample size
You watch a player have an outstanding game. He has size, athleticism, and "unlimited potential." You sign him to a scholarship and it doesn't work out because of character or competence issue, bad luck or injury.
Ignoring History
"The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior." The athlete is troubled, but you know you can fix him. Sure, he had a tough upbringing, but the blend of talent and performance is irresistible...until he starts killing people...literally. The Aaron Hernandez story illustrates.
The Bonus Baby
You fall in love with a player who comes from a good program, produced, and has his best years ahead of him. Except...he's more committed to "The Life" instead of "The Game." But he's still getting paid and after all he was your number one pick. So he gets more chances and more rope to fail until you've fished enough and cut bait. It's proven fact that scholarship players and high picks get more chances regardless of whether they deserve it.
The Problem Man-Child
He's the boy "with the Golden Arm." He's had success and he "has a few problems." Rookie of the Year, World Series champion...over his career, in another era, he's earned over 8.5 million dollars. "The guy can pitch..." so he gets chance after chance despite a litany of drug offenses and seven suspensions. When his arm finally goes, you let him go...and he ends up killing himself in a motor vehicle accident.
Find the Piece That Fits
Champions are made of sterner stuff. He became the poster child for "Three and D." Over a thirteen-year NBA career he averaged six points and one assist. He led the NBA in three-point shoot (.441) one-year and was an eight-time All-Defensive selection. He helped SAS to three NBA titles and wound up earning over 30 million dollars. Not bad for a journeyman...Bruce Bowen.
Break the Mold
He was a four-year player at Oregon. Analytics tell us that the best predictors of NBA success are program played at, success in college, and age when drafted (younger is better). Some guys don't inhabit that space. Payton Pritchard was a tireless worker with a handle and a shot that could space defenses. All he did was help win an NBA title and won NBA Sixth Man of the Year.
Don't allow ourselves to be held back by conventional wisdom. Assess for competitive character in addition to "what's his NBA skill?"
Lagniappe Fran Fraschilla echoes the opinion of Geno Auriemma and Danny Hurley.
If you’ve coached a great offensive player who is athletic and competes, you can teach him to play defense. It’s a lot harder to teach a good defensive player to put the ball in the basket consistently. Criticism of some of these players’ defensive ability in college is vastly…— Fran Fraschilla (@franfraschilla) June 20, 2026
Lagniappe 2. It's a geometry problem? Brian Scalabrine approached Steven Adams who offered him half of an apple. Adams broke it in half with his bare hands. Scalabrine said, "you accept an offer from a guy who can do that."
Steven Adams explains the science of rebounding
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) June 18, 2026
“You’re trying to occupy more degrees than the person boxing you out.”
(h/t @MrBuckBuckNBA)
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