Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets examines why we go off the rails, from overconfidence, to faulty wiring, false beliefs, and luck prevailing against us.
Our brains are designed for survival. Flawed thinking enslaves us. On the savanna, our ancestors heard a noise in a thicket and fled (what if it's a lion?). But, when making complex decisions, activate our "deeper thinking" processes (Type 2, reflective brain) to avoid critical error.
Investors (including me) are more likely to sell winners and hold on to losers. Loss is painful so we try to postpone or avoid it. We construct a favorable narrative about our skill, our smarts, our beauty...it's how we're built.
We get an email from Scamistan asking us to send a thousand dollars to receive a large reward. Oh, goody. No!
"There are exactly two things that determine how our lives turn out: the quality of our decisions and luck."
"I have yet to come across someone who doesn't identify their best and worst results rather than their best and worst decisions."
"...separating the luck from the skill, the signal from the noise, and guarding against resulting."
"...life is more like poker. You could make the smartest, most careful decision in firing a company president and still have it blow up in your face."
"Thoroughly conscious ignorance is the prelude to every real advance in science."
"I'm not sure is a more accurate representation of the world."
"Truthseeking...is not naturally supported by the way we process information."
"The potency of fake news is that it entrenches beliefs its intended audience already has..."
"The surprise is that blind-spot bias is greatest the smarter you are."
"We are wired to protect our beliefs even when our goal is to truthseek."
"We have the opportunity to learn from the way the future unfolds to improve our beliefs and decisions..."
"in single vehicle accidents, 37% of the drivers still found a way to pin the blame on someone else."
"...self-serving bias arises from our drive to create a positive self-narrative."
"After his win...Ivey deconstructed every potential playing error...asking my brother's opinion about each strategic decision."
These just a few of Annie Duke's insights. I like this Duke.
