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Sunday, April 14, 2019

Basketball: Fallacies, False Dichotomy, and More

"What the human mind loves is itself, what serves it, what flatters it, what gives it what it wants, and what strikes down and destroys whatever “threatens” it." - Richard Paul, Linda Elder in Criticalthinking.org 

Fallacies and false dichotomy fill life - nature versus nurture, talent and work, quality or quantity. Coaches aren't immune to 'black and white' thinking. 

Who controls information controls minds. Communication serves our ends. We submit half truths and omit critical data. We suffer attribution bias. Kafka wrote, "everyone is necessarily the hero of their own imagination." Translated, "we lost close games through bad luck (or bad calls); we won close games because of skill and perseverance." Misfortune quenched our deserved success...misfortune and squandered opportunity. 

We ignore inconsistencies that weaken or disprove arguments. "Andre Drummond led the NBA in 2015-2016 with 14.8 rebounds per game. He was a force of nature." Drummond also had a .355 free throw percentage, worst among qualifiers. Nature is notoriously fickle. 

We are judgmental. About a player's coach, we say that players take advantage of her. Or we vilify her as a taskmaster, noting that she wears players out. Nobody wants clay feet. 

Ad hominem attacks drive our thinking. UCLA needs a high quality, high character coach. Coach Rick Pitino has a reputation for flawed character. Coach Pitino represents a bad choice for the UCLA job. Brad Stevens overachieved at Butler. But he can't handle ego and money driven players in the NBA. Get out the torches and pitchforks. 

"Talent is everything." Pundits praised the Celtics for constructing a talented roster capable of challenging for the NBA Finals. But ego and rumored malcontent about minutes, roles, and shots placed the Green as a fourth seed. Talent isn't everything. 




History repeats. The Virginia Cavaliers suffered cataclysmic one seed elimination to UMBC last season. Their style doesn't play in the tournament. Until they walk off with the trophy this year. 

Coach Wooden said, "basketball is a game meant to be played fast." Yet, we know that good teams need offensive and offensive delay games. To be successful, you need to play fast and sometimes slow. "You have to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em. Know when to walk away, know when to run." 

Work on your weakness. No, better to refine your strengths. Don Kelbick writes, "If you want your players to succeed you should get them to do what they do best, in practice, in games, again and again."

Kelbick's 7 Steps: 

Can we liberate ourselves from flawed thinking? Sometimes. Start by keeping an open mind. Our brains are wired to accept information as true. Ask whether in fact it is true. And ask what the relevance is to the argument. The quality of our thinking relates to the effort expended

"Steph Curry is the best long-distance shooter in the NBA this season." 



Curry is a high volume three-point shooter who leads the NBA in three-point shots made per game. But he's fourth in percentage, less relevant in context of the volume of shots he takes. The data adds little context.

Lagniappe: Stuck...and go. Coach Flynn shows a failed PnR turned into a give and go. Make lemonade out of a pick-and-roll gives you a lemon.