Everyone wants the proverbial "well-oiled machine" as a team. We don't need "six sigma" (six standard deviation) mathematics.
Truth is a gateway to progress. A lot of basketball is applied math. Good teams aren't "average" and excellent teams are far away from average in key areas. The best teams shift the curve to high performance.
I know many of us dislike math but here's some easy math from the "bell curve."
One standard deviation (a measure of variation) encompasses 68% of data, two standard deviations over 95%, and three standard deviation are outside 99%.
1. Outperform in key areas (e.g. shot quality, turnovers, transition defense)
2. Better performance in a system usually shifts both away from the average and narrows the variation. The top three turnover teams in the NBA average 12.4 turnovers/game and the bottom three 15.6.
Imagine the graph above as "Turnovers" and the average turnovers are 13 with a standard deviation of 3. That means 95% of a team's games will have turnovers between 7 and 19. Good teams don't give games away.
The mean and the "spread" of the standard deviation varies with level of play. The high school numbers might be closer to a mean of 18 with a standard deviation of 5 or more. I've seen high school teams with over 40 turnovers in a game...moving out beyond 4 standard deviations. Nobody can overcome those mistakes.
3. What are the key areas? We know from Dean Oliver's "Four Factors" the importance of Effective Field Goal Percentage (EFG%), Turnovers, Rebounding, and Free Throws.
4. Change requires measurement and longitudinal tracking. Darren Hardy writes, "Winners are trackers" in The Compound Effect.
5. Players and teams have to want change. Change is difficult.
6. Measurement changes that which is measured, a derivative of the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle. Players knowing they are being measured impacts their behavior.
7. When we decide what to change, we need a strategy. Improved EFG% means improvement in types of shots, shots by shooter (better shooters get more), play type, quality of shots, and shooting skill.
8. Shifting offensive efficiency by play type requires what actions (e.g. scoring off cuts > scoring off pick-and-roll). Or scoring in transition is more effective than scoring in isolation. "Do more of what works..."
9. How might we "shift" the team curve and move away from the mean?
- Skill development. Any tactics work better with better technique. As Rick Carlisle pointed out, the Triangle Offense is obsolete.
- Recruiting. Get better players.
- Keep our best players 'home'. Public schools lose players at record rates.
- Improve our coaching (Get a coach)
- Practice at a higher tempo
