What Cognitive Bias Needs to Be Shattered? Overconfidence. Plus a Drill, Play, and Obradovic

We think erratically, tainted by numerous biases. Doing better demands work. 

Google found "zero relationship" between the interviewer's rating of a candidate and that candidate's ultimate performance at Google. "It allows us, the interviewers, to substitute the candidate's confidence for their intelligence, their likability for their ability."

"What’s fascinating is that Kahneman’s work explicitly swims against the current of human thought. Not even he believes that the various flaws that bedevil decision-making can be successfully corrected. The most damaging of these is overconfidence: the kind of optimism that leads governments to believe that wars are quickly winnable and capital projects will come in on budget despite statistics predicting exactly the opposite. It is the bias he says he would most like to eliminate if he had a magic wand. But it “is built so deeply into the structure of the mind that you couldn’t change it without changing many other things”." 

We are wired to believe what we see, hear, and read, regardless of accuracy. 

• Prejudice
• Stereotyping
• Loss aversion
• Halo effect (one positive trait spills into observer's opinions of others)
• Endowment bias (what we own is better or more valuable)
• Randomness (noise) in decision-making

How do we overcome bias and noise in decisions? Seek "consistency of operations," better process to make better decisions and more consistent outcomes. That applies in many domains - investments, judicial sentencing, forensic science, politics, hiring, and medicine. 

People have recommended outside decision analysts and multiple observers who are not given additional biasing information. Separate 'respect experts' (e.g. political commentary) from performance experts (e.g. chess grandmasters). Apply probability and recognize a spectrum of outcomes are possible to improve decision-making. 

Being a high draft choice doesn't guarantee high performance. Ryan Leaf, Darko Milicic, Pervis Ellison, and Greg Oden attest to that. Be aware of our overconfidence. 

Drill. Kentucky layups. Two balls in each line. Speed dribble to half court. Then speed dribble to finish layups. Two minutes in each direction; track the number of layups made. Time is the constraint that challenges. Women's basketball teams allegedly could max out near 70. 

Set play. Golden State action with possible corner 3, basket cut, and DHO. 

"Great offense is multiple actions." 

Lagniappe. What does it take to become a legend? 

• Loves the game and people
• Vision (results: 9 EuroLeague titles)
• Always focused
• High energy 
• Every game is important to him
• Always has a notebook with him 
• Drive. "I never saw in my life that somebody became a great player only in team practice. These players, who come two hours before and stay two hours after, make the difference."
• Obradovic Coaching Notes
  

Deception.