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Monday, April 8, 2024

Basketball: "You're Nobody..."

"You're nobody until somebody hates you." - Thomas Wolfe 

"You're nobody." I have no problem with that. I've played against a former NBA player (Ron Lee). I took two charges against him. It still hurts over fifty years later. I've played (basketball) against NFL players. Brian Dowling knocked me into the cheap seats making a layup. "B.D., I made the free throw." I had a one day tryout for the Cincinnati Reds. Didn't go well. Ergo, medical school and an old man coaching middle school girls for two decades.  

I am nobody, writing daily about basketball. "Tell the truth." Which truth?

Basketball evolves and it doesn't. "There's no place in the game for the big bangers." And then 6'7" Kamilla Cardoso goes for 15, 17, and 3 (blocks) with 24 Ratings Performance System points. Tessa Johnson had 12 RPS points. Caitlin Clark had a 'negative' score. Read on. 

"Your system is crap." Ok, please share the angst with Lee Rose, who originated the heart of it. All Coach Rose did was go 388-162 and got two teams to the Final Four of NCAA Division 1.  

+3/-3 points (drawing a charge, committing a charge)
+3/-3 making or missing a three point shot
+2 (offense) two point goal, assist, screen leading to a basket, offensive rebound
-2 (offense) two point miss, turnover, missed free throw
+2 (defense) steal, forced turnover, blocked shot
-2 (defense) lost assignment, bad foul leading to free throws
+1 made free throw, defensive rebound, forced held ball
-1 allowed held ball, missed free throw, common foul

Cardoso was 7/14, 1/5 (FT), with 17 rebounds including 7 offensive. She piled up rebounding points and had 3 blocks. 

Tessa Johnson went 7/11, 3/6 on 3s, 2-2 (FT), had 4 defensive boards, 1 steal, 1 assist, 1 turnover and 2 fouls. Johnson took 11/73 (15%) of SC shots and had 19/87 (22%) of their points. 

Clark was 5/15 (2s), 5/13 (3s), 5/6 (FT), 8 rebounds (2 offensive), 5 assists, and had 4 turnovers. Her electric 18 first quarter points got the Hawkeyes out to a great start. Missed shots also matter in "possession by possession" basketball. Clark took 28/63 (44%) of her team's shots and scored 30/75 (40%) of Iowa points.

I get it and regular readers know that I am not a hater. Clark is a generational talent, everyone's best player in women's college basketball, the hub of Iowa's terrific team, the future WNBA number one choice. She led her team to the finals in consecutive seasons. She's phenomenal.  

She spurred interest and attracted eyeballs to women's basketball, another positive for the women's game. She is a cash machine for television and ratings. She's so popular she's been on television more than Taylor Swift lately. 

A "soulless efficiency system" doesn't measure that. It doesn't measure how defenses rotate to her freeing teammates or expend energy covering her. It doesn't measure foul trouble she induces. Numbers also don't "correct" for desperation shots she took at the end of the game that lower her efficiency and had no impact on the final score. 

What analytics measure is how dominance in some areas (e.g. rebounding 51-29, 18-7 on the offensive glass) and effective field goal percentage (53.4% versus 46.8%) accounted for the Gamecocks win. It helps quantify Pete Newell's "get more and better shots than your opponent." 

The fourth question of Michael Useem's introduction to The Leadership Moment asks, "what is the enduring lesson?" Make more and better shots than your opponent. 

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. But unlike Caitlin Clark, when every high schooler in America starts jacking up 'prayers', the game will suffer. 

Lagniappe. Bilas. 

Lagniappe 2. Lay wood or get out.  

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