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Wednesday, February 4, 2026

Basketball and Baseball

Principles and analogies cross sports domains. A podcast by Alex Speier about the Red Sox minor league development system raised points worth considering for basketball programs. 

Strengths and Deficiencies

Baseball systems may lean into strengths or deficiencies such as hitting (scoring) or pitching (run prevention). Similarly, in basketball, teams may overemphasize offense or defense and become "unbalanced." Unless a player has extreme offensive talent, (s)he cannot compensate for a lack of skill, knowledge, or effort defensively. 

Recently, Danny Hurley and Geno Auriemma acknowledged that they recruit offensive players, expecting that they can train them to play adequate or better defense. 

Player Development

In an era where talent acquisition (free agency, trades) or retention (signing) has become expensive, there's value to be had by player development. In baseball, the Red Sox have found prototypes (e.g. size, extension) and added velocity, bad speed, and/or launch angle to raise player performance. In basketball, players have a myriad of skills to develop, ranging from shooting accuracy and range, pick-and-roll play, attacking the basket, and playing within a system. For example, on the Celtics, Neemy Queta's development has transcended most expert's expectations. 

Another analogy fits primary and secondary skills. A pitcher might have an electric fastball but lack pitch shape or command needed. Similarly, in basketball, the "Four ways to score" principle expands on the "GO TO" and "COUNTER" scoring approach. All scorers are not "shooters" and all shooters are not great scorers.

Tools versus Performance

Size and athleticism may not immediately (or ever) transfer to effectiveness, depending on a player's commitment, aptitude, and improvement arc. A player like Derrick White was lightly recruited, and started on a room-and-board stipend at D2 Colorado-Colorado Springs. He matured into a D1 player at Colorado, was a late first round choice by the Spurs, and emerged as an NBA and Olympic Champion. He leads NBA players in plus-minus since December. 

White was not the "toolsiest" player in the Association, but has become a leading contributor if not recognized as an All-Star. 

Measurables

Some classify potential by having a minimum two out of three of size, athleticism, and skill. In "The Undoing Project" by Michael Lewis, he shares that the predictables for NBA draft success are 1) performance in college, 2) elite program, and 3) age at time of the draft (younger is better). Cooper Flagg, recently turned 19 emerging Mavericks superstar, represents an obvious example. 

Floors and Ceilings

Player potential can fall under a variety of "rubrics" including "floors and ceilings." Ideally a player has both a high floor and high ceiling. Assessing youth players, I used an analogy of lottery pick, first rounder, second rounder, and 'street free agent'. 

It's irrational to expect to win big without occasional lottery picks and lots of first rounders. Many parents think their child is in the former categories. I contend that players can rise one category but seldom two. 

Player development plus exceptional player commitment are essential for the players who achieve "escape velocity" to rise even one category. 

These are 'crude' and 'qualitative' categories but may help coaches fashion clarity in player evaluation. 

Lagniappe. Another great video from Isaiah Tavares. 

Lagniappe 2. Good offenses have more 'hard-to-defend actions' including off-ball screening such as Zoom, Flex, backscreens, and complex screens like Spain, screen-the-screener, and Iverson.

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