In his book, "It Worked for Me," General Colin Powell asked intelligence agencies to categorize statements by:
- Tell me what you know.
- Tell me what you don't know.
- Tell me what you think.
- Always distinguish which from which.
This can apply to people (character versus reputation), businesses (sales versus estimates), sports (the "Moneyball Effect" - if he's a good hitter, why doesn't he hit good?), and more.
What we think we know doesn't always square with facts. If someone publicly pledged a donation to a charity, that doesn't fill the charity's account. If a pro executive is rumored to have misbehaved, we don't know if it's true. The organization has to do the digging and make judgments.
When someone tells me, "this team has a ton of talent," I think, "that's interesting. It's worth watching." When the team goes 5-15, then file the source as "less reliable."
Truth
- Statistics. If you're team three-point percentage is 22 percent, that doesn't square with "great shooters."
- Record. Bill Parcells' "You are what your record says you are."
- Postseason play. "Good record, bad playoffs" then you ask about scheduling, coaching, choking.
- If someone tells us a secret, it's on them to have revealed it and on us to keep the secret.
Unknowns
- The insider goes to practice, sees how the sausage is made - the ingredients, the coaching, the tone. The outsider can't know.
- Within the unknowns are health, team spirit, conflicts, etc.
Opinion - What You Think
- Novelist and playwright William Goldman famously said about Hollywood, "Nobody knows anything." That's a good starting point.
- "Experts" said the Celtics would be bad this year without Tatum, Holiday, Horford, Porzingis, Kornet. They're second in the Eastern Conference. "Nobody knows anything."
Sorting It Out
- The Navy has an investigative process (JAGMAN) based on facts, opinions, and recommendations. The investigator must record the who, what, where, and when based upon "findings of fact." There's little ambiguity because opinions must flow from facts.
- Lack of transparency. If there's no transparency, then recognize that.
Lagniappe. On humility.
There’s nothing more dangerous in high school basketball than an unselfish star player.
— Steve Collins (@TeachHoopsBBall) February 13, 2026
The one who passes when they could shoot, plays defense like their scholarship depends on it, and lifts their teammates.
Talent wins games — but humility wins championships.
Lagniappe 2. The Duke Way. Hat tip: Larry McKenzie
