I share excerpts from Peter Bevelin's book on wisdom. Nobody has time to read everything they want...so I rely on book summaries as well as full texts.
1. Be objective. "Darwin had objective thinking patterns; easily rejected past hypotheses and didn't follow lead of other men..." (Moneyball was about objectivity and cost.)
2. Use checklists to reproduce quality. (Atul Gawande wrote The Checklist Manifesto)
4. Psychology informs mistakes. "You get behaviors that you reward."
5. Do not blindly trust people who have (their) outcomes at stake based upon your decisions.
6. Try to be consistently not stupid instead of very intelligent...
7. Instead of will to believe want will to find out (is that true?). (Fake news?)
8. Recognize bad decisions and get out of them quickly (cut your losses).
9. Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.
10.Noah principle: Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does.
11.Enjoy your life w/o comparing it to that of another. "Comparison is the thief of joy."
12.We react more strongly to concrete than abstract. (Power of stories...Made to Stick)
14.Social proof: Rather feel wrong as a group than right alone.
-Somerset Maugham16.Ask if explanation could help prevent future bad events.
17.Keep records of important events. (Memory fails us; we remember what we want.)
18.Sometimes we act because we can't sit still.
19.Distinguish between what you can and cannot control.
20.Winners curse: Ask why seller is selling. (We overpay at auction.)
21.Computer models give false sense of precision.
22.Random events make big changes.
23.Mistaking correlation for cause: Consider alternative explanations.
24.Chance of gain overvalued and chance of loss undervalued.
25.Chance has no memory. (Relying on luck is not a plan.)
26.Most common cause of medical errors is tendency to stop considering other possible explanations after reaching a diagnosis.
27.Encourage admission of accidents without blame. (Cornerstone of aviation industry)
28.Consider false positive and negative rates and base rate in population. (Bayes Theorem)
29.Consider successes and failures. Success may come from luck.
30.Consider many ideas to get holistic view and use insights from different disciplines.
31.Simplify way we do things and people tend to calculate too much and think too little.
32.A good business is one that throws up series of easy decisions and bad one throws up series of hard ones.
33.Can't make a good deal with a bad person.
34.Have patience to stick to problems. Do nothing for a while and let them simmer.
35.Always ask, "and then what?"
36.Managerial competence simply through what the record shows. (Should a player want to play for us? Have we earned that expectation?)
37.Focus on disproving and falsifying rather than proving (seek disconfirming evidence). Which is more likely...the question as posed or the opposite? In Moneyball, Michael Lewis asks, "if he's such a good hitter, then why doesn't he hit better?"
38.Study errors: write down what to avoid, cause, antidote.
39.Reflect on what can go wrong.
40.Focus on the consequences of being wrong instead of its likelihood. (Margin of safety?)
41.Know your circle of competence (stay in your lane).
42.Act as an exemplar.
