State of Denial

At some point, we enter the State of Denial. Denial can be a valuable coping mechanism to keep us fighting when survival odds weigh against us. But denial befogs us when we cannot see reality because we lack expertise, we allow cognitive biases to interfere, or we experience 'tunnel vision' during extreme stress when we are awash in adrenaline. Sometimes this is known as "survival stress." 

Denial manifests in many forms. Sometimes we blame (attribution bias) a lack of success on external factors (e.g. officiating, facilities). Sometimes denial appears when we overwork a fatigued team. It occurs when we ask players to execute a style unsuited to their athleticism or skills. Denial keeps a 'favored' player or play in the mix when performance doesn't justify it. Denial occurs when we let politics affect decisions. 

How do we know we're in denial? Sometimes we let a trade (short-term speculation) turn into an investment. Sometimes there's 'divergence', as when we look in the mirror we see a prince when others see a frog. We see an unlucky organization where outsiders see an ill-prepared, disorganized, or poorly-coached team. 

Conversely, we can mistake our success for innovation or overestimate our abilities, seduced by a good record. Or we confuse superior coaching with a weak schedule. We confuse brains with a bull market. Earl Weaver had a saying, "you're never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose." 

What frees us from the state of denial? Accurate self-assessment reflects a blend of maturity and humility. Self-regulation requires multiple skills - accurate data collection, curiosity to analyze and understand the facts, organization, and relentless engagement to study and the flexibility to change when necessary. 

Even with experience, knowledge, and perspective we still benefit from openness, benchmarking (comparison to established standards), and mentoring. I'm still working on assembling my "Board of Directors". It's hard for an old buzzard to get fresh ideas but I'm working on it.