How do we bridge the gap between the measurables and intangibles?
Astroball informs how the Houston Astros innovated their approach to STOUTS (statistics plus scouts) to rise from the worst team in baseball to the 2017 champions.
SI Jinx reversed...the June 30, 2014 cover.
Michael Lewis profiled Rockets GM Daryl Morey in The Undoing Project. Morey shared that the top three predictors of NBA draftee success are 1) college program attended, 2) college performance, and 3) draft age (younger the better). That leaves holes for foreign players and future high school draftees.
It's still an imperfect science.
Third pick in the 2015 NBA draft, NCAA Champion, Duke one-and-done Jahlil Okafor has seen performance and minutes decline. Pundits have advanced lack of perimeter skills, conditioning, and poor defense as Okafor's undoing. As a rookie, he had self-inflicted maturity issues with speeding and The Life, nightclub incidents. Time will tell whether another change of scenery (New Orleans) affects Okafor.
The most notable performers from the 2015 draft so far are Karl-Anthony Towns, Kristaps Porzingis, and Devon Booker (13). The jury is out on many...and to be fair, all are getting well paid to do what they love.
Astroball writer Ben Reiter profiles a relative unknown, Javier, from Puerto Rico, son of a laborer. Javier began baseball training at age 5, learned English as part of his training, and impressed Astros executives with his maturity, avoidance of 'party life', and eye contact during his interview. They decided to draft Javier with their one-one (first round top pick). The rest is history for Carlos Javier Correa, Jr.
Former Patriots assistance Michael Lombardi addressed character in an interview. Lombardi developed contacts within SEC sororities to get character reviews (some would call that dirt) on SEC football standouts. He said that the college women gave accurate (and willing) information about a prospect's behavior.
Working hard and being a 'quality' person won't make a good player a great player. But lack of effort and a shady personality will certainly undermine a talented player's chance at elite status. Teams want to reduce uncertainty during selection and contract process and seek better predictors of how 'soft' player profiling projects talent into performance. Measuring a player's commitment and relentlessness (e.g. KAT and Correa) is likely to have more impact over time.
Lagniappe:
FastModel Sports shares insights on the Game Model. They reorganize the concept of offense, defense, and conversion and make suggestions on breaking down each phase. For example, they divide offense into construction, penetration, and execution. They suggest using Game Modeling for both teaching and postgame evaluation.
Hat tip: Radius Athletics.
I'm studying these notes from Coach Tim Brady.
