Thinking doesn't replace action. But doing without thinking inevitably "follows a lit fuse."
We have an "automatic" thinking system (reflexive, System 1, X-system) and a deliberate one (reflective, System 2, C-system). When a car speeds at us, we don't 'decide', we jump out of the way. But judgments for complex problems benefit from more processing. Use both well.
We're a storytelling species. We remember and celebrate great stories. Learn the acronym SUCCESS with simple, unexpected, concrete, credible, emotional stories in the mold of the Heath brothers Made to Stick. Tommy Heinsohn earned his second induction to Springfield, this time as a coach. He shared the importance of communication and how Hank Finkel had to fill in against the great Wilt Chamberlain in LA. In the third quarter, Finkel gets his hand caught in the net (story begins at about 12:45 in the video). Check it out.
From MasterClass, the great David Mamet.
Big ideas translate across domains. Develop simple mental models to solve hard problems. Whether it's sample size, the clarity of Occam's Razor, self-interest or confirmation bias, use a latticework of decision tools. For example, the web of incentive-based bias played a prominent role during the recent NCAA basketball scandal.
Inversion (consider the opposite) is a powerful framework. When UCONN sought a new women's basketball coach in 1985, administrators promised the team they'd get the best woman coach available. The players responded that they wanted the best coach available. The rest is history after the arrival of Luigi "Geno" Auriemma.
Do the research. The Feynman Technique includes researching and distilling a topic. We have unprecedented access to information. Do the hard work of breaking it down.
Premortem analysis. Before starting big programs, solicit input on flaws, weaknesses, risks, choke points, and possible unintended consequences. Alfred P. Sloan knew that consensus might mean nobody was thinking.
The smartest guy in the room can be wrong; good ideas can come from anywhere. John Meriwether's powerful investment strategy went belly up because of "fat tails" in When Genius Failed. Steve Kerr took videographer Nick U'ren's observations on small ball and the Warriors rode Andre Iguodala's insertion into the lineup to an NBA title.
Strong ideology and public commitment can be disastrous where we're wrong. We may stick to bad decisions ('sunk costs') or allow faulty FRAMING to cloud our thinking. So does knowing where the bodies are buried. Permanent warfare occurs because few alternatives are proposed, leading to 'muddling through'. Teams hang onto overpaid, nonproductive players using similar thinking.
People know how to build a coalition by inciting bias AGAINST others (age, sex, race, ethnicity, religion, politics). Some say that USC's defeat of Alabama in 1970 did more to integrate the South than any political policy. We need to see "negative evaluation" arguments in context. What does the 'hero' want? As Mamet teaches, "Why does (s)he want it? What happens if they don't get it? Why now?"
We're wired to fail. We can accept that or think about thinking. Kevin Eastman wrote in Why the Best Are the Best, "we may have the freedom of choice, but we do not have the freedom of the consequence." Become our better versions. Speak greatness. Start by thinking better.
