Basketball: Revenge of the Nerds: Stats and Charts. What Matters?

When my son was sixteen he said, "I may not be the most popular kid in school, but I know that nerds run the world." He's almost thirty-seven now, a stats guy, but that hasn't changed. Good stats accompany success. 

Great teams pass the eyeball test and statistically. Win "possession and possessions." This season Villanova was second in effective field goal percentage and fourteenth in turnover percentage. 

From a practical standpoint, find reliable, vital numbers and use them for improvement not character assassination. 

Shooting. 

The EFG formula corrects for three point shots made. 

If we're charting, make the work worthwhile. Shot charts inform where the rubber meets the road. Who makes what and where? 

Tweet of note: 

NCAA Four Factors: With the National Final set, teams winning these factors have the following records in tournament play:
eFG% 52-10
TO% 34-28
OREB% 33-29
FTF 36-26#MarchMadness #FinalFour

— Radius Athletics (@RadiusAthletics) April 1, 2018

Golden State defeated Houston in Game 7 with an explosive third quarter, abetted by Houston striking out from the perimeter. Ultimately, it's EFG% differential that has the highest predictive value. 

The Rockets came up completely empty. 

The Celtics were outliers in EFG% this season, but lead the NBA in defense. 

Rebounding. 

Dean Oliver's original 'four factors' were field goal percentage, rebounding differential, turnovers, and free throws taken. 

I was surprised to see that Golden State captured the second highest percentage of all rebounds in the postseason. 

Assists. 

The numbers are smaller for assist ratio, assist percentage, and assist-to-turnover ratios but GSW led the NBA in assist ratio and assist-to-turnover ratio during the most recent playoffs. "Assist ratio in basketball is defined as the percentage of a player's possession that results in an assist."

With young players and lower shooting percentage, my coach argued the importance of assists (leading to easier shots) and net rebounds (more opportunities). 

Turnovers. This tweet says it all.

NCAA Four Factors: With the NCAA Tournament complete, teams winning both eFG% and TO% finished 24-1 in NCAA Tournament play.

Villanova did not accomplish this in last night's game #MarchMadness #FinalFour

— Radius Athletics (@RadiusAthletics) April 3, 2018

Keep it simple. Track EFG% and turnovers and reap the benefits. 

Lagniappe:

I won't call this Evan Turner's signature move, but it's impressive nevertheless.