We think we make good decisions. How do we decide? Our first answer might be 'experience.' What happens when a new problem arises that we haven't faced? We examine our strengths and weaknesses, experience (with those teams), and factor in situations (time and score).
Gary Klein's "Sources of Power" studies decision making. He emphasizes "recognition-primed decision making." "Klein argues that recognition strategies don't replace analytical methods, but an improvement. Analytical methods are the fallback for those without experience.
Why did it go wrong? "Klein describes a review a sample of 25 decisions with poor outcomes (from 600 he had available) to assess what went wrong. Sixteen outcomes were due to lack of experience, such as someone not realizing that construction of the building on fire was problematic. The second most common issue was lack of information. The third most common involved noticing but explaining away problems during mental simulation – possibly involving bias."
Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman discusses decision-making in Thinking: Fast and Slow. He argues that we have two 'systems' (1 and 2), the first reflexive (x-system) and the second reflective (c-system). The first is "back of the envelope" (automatic). A car speeds towards us, we jump out of the way. The second requires data input and processing, and is labor and time-intensive. How do I choose a home, a job, a team, et cetera.
Paul Minors' excellent review notes, "Kahneman explains that system two is capable of failure, and there are two reasons why this happens; ignorance and laziness."
After a practice, game, or season, reflect on the who, how, and what honestly. Michael Useem's The Leadership Moment suggests guidelines:
- What went well?
- What went poorly?
- What can we do differently?
- What are the enduring lessons?
This exercise is difficult because it exposes us to self-criticism. As coaches, we never lack for external (often justified) criticism.
Summary:
- Experience (recognition) lies at the core of decisions.
- Analytics are the fallback position.
- Rapid processing (heuristics, unconscious) can save or betray us.
- Ignorance and laziness are flaws within the conscious decision-making process.
- Understanding our identity (core values) and processes (system) directs outcomes.
Lagniappe: “If you lose the spirit of repetition, your practice will become quite difficult.” - Zen Mind, Beginners Mind
Lagniappe 2: Go to about 4:14 of the video for a BOB
Traffic jam creates a layup
Lagniappe 3: Need a Three?
Adapted "America's Play"
