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Wednesday, July 13, 2022

Fools' Gold and Summer League

"The logo, Jerry West, is in the house." Well, there's that. If Jerry West can watch hopefuls in July, so can we. 

Caveat emptor; buyer beware. Summer league reeks of excess, after all, it's in Las Vegas. Pump the brakes. 

1. Sample size. It's seductive to overhype or dismiss a guy based on a game or two against lesser competition without sophisticated defense or preparation. Last night Justin Jackson looked like George Gervin against the Summer Warriors. But a 27 year-old journeyman is one for a reason. 

2. Confirmation bias. We like a player, so we read favorable profiles and reviews of how he's going to compete for a cherished NBA roster spot. In Vegas, tens of front office guys and coaches search for the Golden Nugget...and they don't care what USA Today says. 

3. Anchoring. Imagine having a bias toward the dynamic size and athleticism of young wannabes. Then you see your guy jumping out of the gym and making a couple of plays. Yeah, but...he's out of control too often and turning the ball over. 


In the biggest moment on the brightest stage, will the moment bring exposure or exposure in the moment? 

4. Circle of competence
  • What does a guy's game show? 
  • Does he make good decisions? 
  • Does he make and execute the simple play? 
  • How does he impact winning? 
  • Does he make teammates better? 
  • Is he moving the ball or stopping it?
  • What's his shot selection and execution? 
  • Does he space on offense and shrink space on D? 
  • Can he end possessions with rebounds, steals, and assists?
5. Wow factor? Spot the guys with exceptional "it factor." Jonathan Kuminga was great for the Warriors last night against the Celtics. He should stand out as an NBA rotation player in Summer League. He's got the body, skills, and he's only nineteen. Mfiondu Kabengele stood out for the Celtics as a big body with toughness. But it's one game...in Summer League. 

Lagniappe. "Basketball is a game of separation." This video is simple and I'd prefer to see the moves with a defender. Decide what belongs in your bag.