Caitlin Clark exemplifies a classic cas study for the range of mental models and cognitive biases in examining players. These apply a few of the most common.
Sample size. Clark has played three games for the Indiana Fever. That doesn't predict the arc of her career. She's already achieved generational wealth based on her endorsements, putting her in elite company. Individual achievement also will vary with the supporting cast. Number one overall choices play with 'limited' rosters.
Anchoring. We tend to project the future based on the past. Player of the Year status doesn't guarantee professional success. Players not only need to produce but remain healthy against older, more physical, mature players.
Recency bias. What have you done for me lately? If your last game was spectacular, then that sticks in fans' minds more than more distant performances.
Confirmation bias. Most people tend to seek evidence (reading, interviews, podcasts) which reaffirm their existing opinion. Supporting voices help us feel better about ourselves regardless of the value of the information.
Circle of competence. Clark's ascent sparked international interest in women's basketball. That also means that a lot of newer fans are on board, less familiar with the history and great players of the past and present. It's premature to bestow GOAT status on a young player while unaware of facts like Breanna Stewart being a four-time Final Four Most Outstanding Player with four NCAA crowns.
Consistency and commitment. When we make public statements, we often choose to defend them because of self-belief.
Inversion. "Invert, always invert." Some call this, "the other side of the trade." There's simply not enough data to create an "opposing view" hypothesis.
Remember the achievement equation:
ACHIEVEMENT = Performance x Time
What can we reliably say about the Clark phenomenon? "A rising tide lifts all boats." More interest drives attendance, seat revenues, merchandising, television and advertising revenues and opportunities for the sport and players. It's win-win for women's basketball.
Lagniappe. Range, openness and balance all matter.
Single Leg Replacement Progression Work 👀👇
— HoopStudy (@hoopstudy) May 17, 2024
Many actions happening from replacing feet in certain positions to get into different movements. Here’s a brief look at some movements with some live translation afterwards.#Hoopstudy #ballislife #balance #basketballtraining pic.twitter.com/A1Sij5iVLh
Lagniappe 2. Screeners be aware of the many options.
🏀BALL SCREENER SERIES
— Basketball & Brew Podcast (@basketballnbrew) May 18, 2024
1. Screen & Roll
2. Short Roll
3. Slip
4. Ghost
5. Pick & Pop
▪️5 actions for the screener to practice pic.twitter.com/4YXkE2ZSo5
