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Wednesday, December 11, 2024

Basketball - Copycats

"Better ingredients, better pizza." - Papa John slogan

Sports tend to function as 'copycats'. A team like Golden State flourished with a superstar triad, innovative coach in Steve Kerr, and volume three point shooting.

The NBA has evolved with both rules changes and the application of analytics, e.g. the Four Factors. 

The Celtics got over the hump with a pair of top 15 level players in Tatum and Brown, and complementary 'top 35ish' talent in Porzingis, Holliday, and White. Better talent, better basketball. 

From Statmuse

The 2024-2025 Celtics take more than 20 percent more threes than most NBA teams and are third in NBA scoring behind Cleveland and Memphis. 

That doesn't mean that "our" team should copy that unless we have the shooters to create high effective field goal percentages. 

NBA top five effective field goal percentage from Statmuse


Effective volume of threes works well combined with low turnover percentage as the Celtics had the second lowest TOV%. 

Watch a high school varsity game and chart three point and turnover percentages. Poor teams blend low perimeter shooting with high turnover rates making winning almost impossible. It's a combination of poor offensive discipline and execution in two key areas.

The great Pete Newell said, "most copies are poor reproductions of the original." For that reason, using artificial intelligence to design your offense using NBA statistics is flawed. 

I follow the American University women's program where I have a former player. "American University's women's basketball team currently ranks lower in both three-point shooting and turnover efficiency compared to most Division I teams. Their three-point shooting percentage is approximately 26.4%, placing them near the bottom of Division I rankings," most recently at 290th. 

Key points:

  • A copycat approach has to be an effective copy of success. 
  • It takes a lot to assemble a "reasonable facsimile" of excellence.
  • "Most copies are poor reproductions of the original."
  • Applying statistics from elite basketball to lower levels is flawed. 
  • Tracking discipline and execution allows you to trend success and struggles. 

​Lagniappe. Attacking the front foot... 

Lagniappe 2. Create space with athleticism and technique.  





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