As coaches, our most important tasks are leadership and decision-making. The mechanics of decision-making vary, from heuristic/reflexive (speeding car approaching...AVOID!) to deliberative. We should focus on those latter decisions.
Once again we can concentrate on our ABCs - avoiding mistakes, bias, and consequences.
The basketball bible of avoiding mistakes is Bob Knight's The Power of Negative Thinking. In our own experiences, we remember the avoidable mistakes. Red Auerbach said his worst loss came on a last second shot after his inbounder threw the ball in with a BEHIND-THE-BACK pass. My daughters lost a sectional championship game when a player had a shot blocked, leading by 1 with 12 seconds to go and 11 seconds on the shot clock. In the "Havlicek stole the ball game", Bill Russell had turned the ball over with an inbounds pass that hit a guy wire.
Even in our developmental program, we find that tracking shot selection and turnovers consistently results in higher shooting percentage (fewer bad shots) and turnovers.
We are beholden to a wide array of biases. Three major ones are FRAMING, OVERCONFIDENCE, and CONFIRMATION BIAS.
Framing means to structure choices in a way to get a desired result. During the Vietnam War, Secretary Kissinger presented three options to President Nixon - go Nuclear, withdraw, or maintain the status quo. Lacking a more nuanced choice, the President chose the status quo. The same situation exists for Guantanamo Bay and Afghanistan. The status quo has become the default choice and the political consequences of a different direction make it so. In a basketball program, some coaches frame MORE GAMES, MORE OPPORTUNITY as the default choice. I frame "value of practice exceeds more games without skills" as my default. I argue that more touches, more teaching, more minutes occur during practice which aids young players' development.
Overconfidence is normal. As we source more data (e.g. in horse racing...lineage, recent performance, class, track conditions, jockey, trainer, etc.), bettors become more confident of their choice. We know from data collection that more data does NOT produce more accuracy. In basketball, overconfidence may lead to less or inadequate preparation or intensity and unexpected results.
Confirmation bias means reading and studying data that confirm current beliefs. Consider the AL MVP voting. The Red Sox won the AL East and Mookie Betts was their best player overall. He was second in Wins Above Replacement (WAR) to Mike Trout, had over 100 runs scored and RBI, and led the league in defensive WAR. He helped lead a winning team. The contrary argument (for Trout) is that he led the league in WAR, is an outstanding defender, and it's not his fault he didn't play for a winner. He also made about 90 fewer outs than Betts over the season. We often read what we believe in every sphere of life. That can have little or disastrous consequences in investing, where the smartest investors may have superior research and insight as to why a company will succeed or fail. Understanding "the other side of the trade" matters.
We should also understand potential consequences from a spectrum or possibilities and severities. The largest 'loss' in Las Vegas, as reported by Nassim Taleb in "The Black Swan" came to a casino (The Mirage) in which a tiger attacked his handler. Unforeseen? We know that tigers are dangerous, yet presumed from prior history a modicum of safety. Until yesterday, the NFL coaches that lost in London returned home to a firing. Will Chuck Pagano (or GM Ryan Grigson) await that fate?
Becoming a 'better version' of ourselves is a priority for excellence. Understanding the importance of avoiding mistakes, bias, and the consequences of poor decisions helps us to overcome adversity and helps our teams enjoy sustained competitive advantage.
