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Saturday, October 15, 2016

What is a Good Shot?

Posted by Alan Stein, hat tip to Brian Sass


Some dimensions belong to the shooter (skill), some to the team (situation, rebounding), and some to the defender (position). 



The Importance of Being Open: What Player Tracking Data Can Say About NBA Field Goal Shooting from Sloan Sports Conference

Defenders learn to contest shots. Offensive players learn the value of catch-and-shoot. Although the data is old, the principles likely are only modestly different. 

During the 2012-2013 NBA season, "We analyzed close to 20,000 shots and found that when a player is “open” the shooting percentage is around 40%, compared to a “pressured” shot which is close to 32%."


At the event-level, it can be seen that to get an open shot teams should dribble less and share the ball more, with more dribbling leading to pressured shots and more possessions leading to open shots. 

Bottom line: The game is still about passing and cutting. Catch-and-shoot leading to open shots dominates the modern game. Dribble less to get better shots.